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COVID STRATEGY GUIDE: Two Races - Vaccines & the Election

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OPERATION WARP SPEED:  IT DOESN’T MEAN TOMORROW

Ken Frazer is right.  He should know. Merck has developed four out of seven of the world’s human vaccines in the past quarter-century.  

We have learned this week that a safe, effective vaccine against COVID-19, the infection caused by the coronavirus, most likely won’t be available for large segments of the world’s population until 2022 at the earliest.  Sure, there might be a breakthrough that would result in rapid approval and around-the-clock ‘fill and finish’ efforts to manufacture enough quantities to see hundreds of thousands -- if not a few million people -- lucky enough to receive immunizations. But that’s not a best-case scenario, that’s a dream come true one. And like Frazer said, no one is safe until everyone is, which means finding the ways and means to vaccinate seven billion souls.  

So, where does the race for a vaccine stand? Let’s look at the bevy of research and development efforts by the world’s most prestigious institutions and pharmaceutical giants. 

Three candidates lead the COVID-19 vaccine race, based on the clinical progression of their respective candidates. Each of these vaccine candidates is either in Phase 3 clinical studies or soon will be. 

Moderna’s vaccine program received the most American media publicity. The biotech recently released findings from a phase 1 study of mRNA-1273 in The New England Journal of Medicine. Those results showed that Moderna’s vaccine candidate produced neutralizing antibodies that can prevent viral infection in all 45 participants.  

In June, Chinese drug maker Sinovac reported that its vaccine candidate CoronaVac produced neutralizing antibodies in over 90% of patients in a early clinical studies. But many regulatory experts see little chance Sinovac will win FDA approval.  

AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford published promising results July 20 from a phase 1 study of AZD1222 in The Lancet medical journal. 

Phase 2 trials are presently the domain of two Chinese drug makers: 


The Chinese military is using Cansino’s experimental Ad5-nCoV vaccine under a one-year special permission granted by China’s Central Military Commission. The vaccine candidate isn’t approved for use outside of military personnel, however, and neither of these two vaccine candidates is being tested in the U.S. at this point. The odds that an experimental vaccine in phase 2 clinical trial will eventually win FDA approval is low -- less than 25% based on historical data. 

There are more than 20 vaccines in Phase 1 development in 18 nations. Of note, BioNTech and Pfizer reported on July 1 for BNT162b1, one of four candidates in development. The FDA recently granted its most accelerated approval process known as “Fast Track” to two candidates, which expedites the review process. 

Recently garnering high interest is Novavax, which has attracted much attention for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Operation Warp Speed, the U.S. program to bring a COVID-19 vaccine to market, selected NVX-CoV2373 to receive $1.6 billion in research and development funding.  

The chances the FDA will approve a vaccine candidate in Phase 1 testing are very low, at least based on historical data. Only 16% of experimental vaccines in early-stage studies between 2006 and 2015 ultimately won FDA approval, based on an analysis conducted by the biopharmaceutical industry trade organization, BIO.   

There is growing optimism that one of these laboratories will succeed, but we should be wary of celebrating too early. There are several stumbling blocks that could push back a vaccine well into 2021 or 2022 — if one is ever developed.

Testing whether a vaccine stops infection requires the virus to circulate. Plummeting infection rates (usually good news) means trials take longer. Even if a vaccine did produce antibodies, does that equate to long-term protection? How quickly can companies scale up production of a successful formula to deploy it to billions of people? Is it even possible to distribute a vaccine equitably across the world, rather than being utilized exclusively by wealthy nations? If a vaccine becomes available, will it stop transmission – and will enough people agree to have it end the virus in its tracks? 

“When mass vaccination programs start, they will involve a public health logistics endeavor of manufacture, distribution, vaccination, and monitoring, bigger than anything humankind has ever attempted. Think along the lines of a world war.” 

—Danny Altmann, director of the immunology laboratory at Imperial College London 

Evidence shows the virus attacks not only the lungs but also multiple organs, including the brain; it causes blood clots implicated in strokes and heart attacks. In a tiny group of children, the virus creates a severe hyper-inflammatory syndrome, or a COVID-related “toxic shock” syndrome. 

We still do not fully understand the long-term effects on survivors. Some survivors of the 2002-04 SARS epidemic, which was also caused by a coronavirus, endured lingering health problems. SARS killed around 10 percent of people it infected. Some COVID survivors are “long-haulers,” people who might not require hospitalization but who is bedeviled by multiple relapses and persistent fatigue that last for months. For critically ill patients, the cheap steroid dexamethasone can improve survival, but it is no guarantee. Nobody should want to catch this virus. 

The safest way to avoid the virus right now remains Physical distancing requires suppressing the social instinct endemic to humanity. The commonplace ways society crowds people together – in schools, campuses, shops, restaurants, offices, factories, churches, gyms, transport hubs, refugee camps – are dangerous nodes in a viral transmission network. 

While some countries such as Vietnam, New Zealand, Germany, and South Korea have been prosperous at containment, new outbreaks demonstrate that the virus can remain as long as there is a virgin population. That is why a vaccine, which should reduce susceptibility to infection, is the best hope for returning to the pre-coronavirus norm. If enough high-risk people get vaccinated, the virus runs out of new people to infect, and the rate of transmission falls to zero. That is the foundation of childhood vaccination and herd immunity.

IS THERE A FRONT RUNNER?  

Despite confidence in Moderna’s vaccine program, the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, AZD1222, we regard as the front-runner because it is at the final testing stages, and Operation Warp Speed is backing it. Manufacturing capacity is already in place, and AstraZeneca will supply up to 400-million doses to Europe at no profit. The first batches will be deployed as early as September. 

Imperial sidestepped Big Pharma by setting up a social enterprise to roll its vaccine quickly and cheaply to low- and middle-income countries. The prospect of “vaccine nationalism” led to the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator (ACT Accelerator). The Accelerator collaborates with partners like the WHO, the European Commission, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness and Innovations, and various national governments. 

One goal of the $31 billion plan, still to be fully funded, is to secure two billion doses of vaccine, half of which will go to low-and-middle-income countries, by the end of 2021. It recognizes the reality that struggling countries cannot be left to go it alone in the age of global contagion.

WHAT ABOUT OTHER DRUGS? 

Several large international trials are evaluating thirty-one potential therapies. The most extensive, SOLIDARITY, is led by the World Health Organization (WHO). More than 100 countries joined SOLIDARITY to evaluate high-profile treatment candidates for COVID-19.  

And by now, despite a feeble effort by Donald Trump to tout the efficacy of the drug as a prophylactic or effects or effective therapy for COVID infection, evidence shows that hydroxychloroquine has demonstrated it causes more harm than benefit in patients with COVID-19.  

The pandemic has created an unprecedented public/private partnerships. Operation Warp Speed is a collaboration of several U.S. government departments, including Health and Human Services and its sub-agencies, Agriculture, Energy, and Veterans Affairs and the private sector. Within OWS, the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) partnered with over 18 biopharmaceutical companies to speed the development of drug and vaccine candidates, dubbed Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines (ACTIV). 

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) is drafting procedures for accelerated drug and vaccine development, promising to offer rapid reviews for scientific advice, compliance, market authorization, extensions beyond indications and market authorizations, and compassionate use for COVID-19 related initiatives. 

Scientists worldwide are closely looking at developing treatment protocols based on the highly successful therapies developed over the past three decades to treat one of the deadliest viruses of them all — HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. There is optimism among researchers that a type of new protease inhibitor therapy might effectively reduce the viral load of COVID-19, much as it does with HIV, in infected people.   

THE SOUTH FALLS (ILL) 

PER-CAPITA POPULATION WITH A REPORTED COVID CASE.

South Carolina’s premature reopening of beaches and the reckless policies from its regional neighbors Georgia and Florida, threatens to overwhelm the entire region, as restless travelers flock to traditional summer destinations and tourist events like Bike Week, which proceeded unabated.

There is no evidence of widespread compliance with mask orders or social distancing guidelines, and nearly 1-of-5 COVID tests are positive—evidence that testing severely lags the spread of the virus.

Twelve South Carolina counties, including Charleston, Berkeley, Dorchester and Beaufort in the Lowcountry, are considered “red zones” within the state, meaning they have percent-positive tests higher than 10%. Travel to South Carolina is high-risk due to uncontained and unmonitored community spread, and a local culture that does not take the threat from the virus seriously.

Avoid travel through tourist areas and the state capitol Columbia. However, rural South Carolina in the western regions continue to see lower rates of COVID—indicating a strong correlation between nightlife and the rate of viral spread.

Search engine results yield only a few hits. There is no evidence of public discourse about state mitigation strategies or otherwise substantive policy discussions aside from opposition to some government efforts. It will be impossible for South Carolina to contain the virus if it is widely incapable of critical policy analysis.

South Carolina is not the only state in the region facing a disaster, but it is the buffer between the deep south and the more industrialized and populated upper-south. Health infrastructure failures in South Carolina could result in hospitalization and case spillover to neighboring states.

Finally, South Carolina has so far escaped the massive death tolls experienced in New York and New Orleans. However, its ICU beds are nearing capacity. The virus will become significantly more deadly and dangerous to South Carolina once health infrastructure fails.

2020 ELECTION ANALYSIS 

With Donald Trump over the weekend announcing that the Border Patrol and ICE would join the Federal Protective Service assuming police powers over federal facilities and those who protest near them, it means that Trump has found agencies willing to participate in illegal schemes. This outcome has chilling consequences for the 2020 election, as the agencies could deploy across American polling places under the guise of "protecting the integrity of the vote." 

Also, some swing state governors face politicization of mask orders in states like North Carolina and Montana. The theory is that angry voters could reward the domestic opposition party, swinging some purple states red despite anti-Trump sentiment. However, as COVID hospitalizations and deaths mount, opposition to mask orders will decrease. The Cook Political Report is forecasting what it calls a Democratic 'tsunami' if present trends hold.  

Trump's weak political standing impacts other Republican candidates. It has created tougher-than-expected battles for Republican Senate incumbents in Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina. Moreover, it is dimming the prospects of the Republican challenger in Michigan. The President's double-digit deficits in Colorado and Maine, both of which Hillary Clinton carried by smaller margins in 2016, make reelection difficult for Republican incumbents in these states. 

Trump's impact is also evident in two deep-red states that should be slam-dunks for Republican Senate candidates. In 2016, Trump prevailed in Montana by 20.4 percent and in Kansas by 20.6 points. As of now, his lead in both these states is down to 9 points. The Democrats' Senate candidate in Montana, the current governor, runs about even with the incumbent Republican senator. Kansas Republicans, for example, openly worry than if they nominate a Trump-style populist conservative in their primary, they could end up with a Democratic senator for the first time since 1932. 

Regardless of intimidation tactics, the campaign may adopt, Trump cannot postpone the November 2020 Presidential Election, the outcome of which is the single-largest independent variable when predicting how the United States might respond to the coronavirus in the long-term (3+ years). The possible results fall into four categories. (1) Biden wins and assumes office; (2) Biden wins, but Trump contests the result (3) Trump wins and remains in office; (4) Trump wins but does not stay in office. 

Each scenario results in separate and distinct categorical outcomes for the United States as it tries to control the coronavirus. 

We believe that in the weeks approaching the election, President Trump will try to instill even greater fear to reduce election turnout, as his stated campaign strategy relies on voter suppression in crucial swing states to win. Increased chaos could take several forms. One critical approach in fomenting chaos is for the federal government or partisan Republicans to deliberately undermine state government actions to prolong the suffering from coronavirus. The logic for this fear includes Trump's stated goals to depress election turnout and early "experiments" by the Governors of Georgia and Florida, who are key Trump allies. 

The President told Politico he believes the potential to lose lawsuits challenging mail-in voting and limiting access to the ballot box in November is the "biggest risk" to a second term.  

"MAIL-IN VOTING WILL LEAD TO MASSIVE FRAUD AND ABUSE. IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE END OF OUR GREAT REPUBLICAN PARTY. WE CAN NEVER LET THIS TRAGEDY BEFALL OUR NATION." -President Donald Trump (Twitter) 

Trump officials argue that Democrats are using COVID-19 as an "excuse and pretext" to rush through drastic changes like universal vote-by-mail that he claims will help Democratic candidates. That would inject more uncertainty into our elections. The RNC has also hired the law firm Consovoy McCarthy to pressure election officials in battleground states to purge voting rolls, threatening to sue if they do not comply. 

In addition to the GOP's deliberate efforts, the 2020 Presidential Election is the first election since the 1982 consent decree between the Democratic and Republican parties will no longer be in effect. That decree limited the harassment and intimidation of voters of color, including deputizing off-duty law enforcement and equipping them with guns or badges. 

Outside conservative groups like True the Vote are drafting the Trump campaign's aggressive plans under the guise of cracking down on "voter fraud" (a proven racist myth). Their plan calls for off-duty or retired Navy SEALs to monitor polling places and intimidate voters, specifically in Philadelphia, in which minority voters make up 41 percent of the electorate.  

Despite apparent attempts by Trump-allies to steal the election, the real crisis is the lack of funding or readiness in thousands of election jurisdictions trying to shift to a hybrid in-person/vote-by-mail model in a few months.  

In California, where over 70 percent of voters mailed in their ballots for the most recent primary, the transition will not be difficult. However, Pennsylvania, where the percentage of mail-in votes is in the single digits, faces a daunting task. Chuck Coughlin, an Arizona consultant who advised John McCain, says it took years and many elections for Arizona to master widely adopted mail-in voting.  

Underfunded election operations are a perennial issue, but with state budgets facing dramatic cutbacks due to COVID-19, the funding shortfall could be worse than ever.  

"My usual election-cycle comment is that we're trying to find enough duct tape to cover the holes in the bucket. This time, we're trying to make the bucket out of duct tape." – Justin Levitt, Professor at Loyola Law School 

Through amplifying false warnings of "massive fraud and abuse" and spreading misinformation about the integrity of the election, Trump could be laying the groundwork to challenge or deny the election results. If the RNC were to follow suit and file lawsuits challenging the vote count, American democracy could be in dangerous territory. Imagine Bush v. Gore on steroids.  

"We've never had a president de-legitimize our democratic process intentionally. It is the kind of behavior you would not see — and should not see — in a healthy democracy." –Rachel Bitecofer, Senior fellow and election forecaster, Niskanen Center. 

As more social media outlets ban political advertising, campaigns will move to strategic in-group messaging to circumvent clear filters. These actions will cause chaos regardless of the election's outcome.

9 RISKS TO A PEACEFUL ELECTION 

  1. TRUMP REFUSES TO LEAVE OFFICE 

  2. DESPONDENT TRUMP ABANDONS REELECTION BID  

  3. ECONOMIC COLLAPSE BEFORE OR AFTER TRANSFER OF POWER 

  4. COVID DEATHS ALTER ELECTORATE UNPREDICTABLY 

  5. MAIL-IN VOTING BLOCKED 

  6. SOCIAL UNREST, VIOLENCE BETWEEN PARAMILITARY AND ARMED MILITIA GROUPS  

  7. FOREIGN INTERFERENCE AND MISINFORMATION 

  8. CANDIDATE DEATHS 

  9. DISPUTED ELECTION 

TRADITIONAL OUTCOMES 

SCENARIO 1 

BIDEN VICTORY—ASSUMES OFFICE 

The ideal scenario holds that despite Trump’s attempt at election shenanigans, Joe Biden defeats Trump soundly and assumes office as expected in January. If this happens, we expect the Biden Administration to move quickly to contain the coronavirus and stabilize the structures of American democracy weakened by Trump. 

The most dangerous time for Americans in this scenario is the two months between the election and inauguration. During this time, Trump could cause enough damage and chaos to America to make it ineffective at achieving its global security priorities. This time is also when America is most likely to be directly attacked by a revisionist foreign power. 

A traditionally peaceful transfer-of-power is unlikely to occur at the time of this writing. This scenario is the best-case scenario for health outcomes. 

PANDEMIC OUTCOMES 

  • The U.S. adopts and implements a national strategy to contain the virus. 

  • Procurement return to standard processes. 

  • U.S. is more likely to contain COVID successfully. 

  • GOP continues to politicize Biden administration policies, as with the Obama-era. 

  • If coronavirus fully contained: 

  • Children return to school in Fall 2021 

  • The economy reopens in the summer of 2021. 

  • Vaccine or treatment is irrelevant. 

SCENARIO 2 

BIDEN VICTORY—TRUMP ATTEMPTS TO THWART ELECTORAL PROCESS, OR REFUSES TO LEAVE 

This scenario holds that Biden wins the election. However, Donald Trump refuses to acknowledge defeat, even if presidential electors’ votes confirm Biden’s victory on January 6, 2021, when their votes are tabulated before a Joint Session of Congress.  

It’s a scenario that’s been debated by responsible former government officials, Vice President Biden and even comedian and satirist Bill Maher. But what would happen in such a nightmarish situation? Trump, realizing his defeat on election night, would dispatch teams of lawyers to states where his margin of victory was sufficiently close to warrant investigation. Or, he might incessantly tweet declaring the entire election process was a massive fraud. Unless certain Republican governors were to join his tirade for formal protest -- backed by their respective Republican-held legislatures -- the folly of Trump’s riposte would redound his ability to rally more radical elements of his MAGA base supporters. No one knows how such a display of red-hatted, armed people would look or act. As scary as it sounds, it might just come to naught.  

Legal wrangling aside, the Constitution comes into play on December 14 when presidential electors meet in 50 state capitals to case their pledged votes for president and vice president. At that point, it’s over for Trump. The U.S. Supreme Court likely would not intervene except to reaffirm the constitutional process.  

But what if Trump still refuses to acknowledge defeat -- even after Biden and his vice president are affirmed on December 14 by the Electoral College, votes and later, on January 6, when a newly sworn Congress agrees with the count.  

In theory, that’s an easy one. The 20th Amendment is clear: Trump and Pence’s terms of office end precisely at 12:01 p.m. on that day. And at that moment, no matter where President Biden may be, Donald Trump is no longer president. The nuclear codes will no longer work for him. His presidential level of Secret Service protection will immediately disappear all but for a small detail. Military commanders from the Pentagon to Afghanistan will swear allegiance to the new Commander in Chief. Again, if Trump is so ludicrously resistant to departing 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue for Mar-a-Lago, his pathetic masquerade would become a national and global embarrassment, but not one that would pose an exigent threat to our democracy.  

Why? Because even if Trump holes up in the White House residence, he won’t be welcome in the West Wing, or at Joint Base Andrews, or the Presidential Emergency Operations Center (PEOC) buried deep beneath the White House. The Marines and Air Force won’t fly him anywhere. The long motorcade is gone. He can’t summon the press corps for a quick photo op or briefing anywhere.  

At this juncture, it’s all up to the new president. Will Joe Biden give Trump some time to get himself and his things out of the mansion? Truman did for Eleanor Roosevelt. LBJ allowed Jackie Kennedy to remain for a couple of weeks to organize her new residence in Georgetown. But those were peaceful transitions -- even if triggered by tragic circumstances.  

We think it’s an almost sure bet to assume Trump will not phone Joe Biden election night to congratulate him if the 45th president loses. We also can assume that Trump will not accompany Biden and the new vice president down Pennsylvania Avenue for the inaugural ceremony. As we know, Trump’s presence isn’t required, but he would be the first since Andrew Johnson, who refused to accompany his successor, Ulysses S. Grant, to the swearing-in.   

What happens if Trump loses, but Biden becomes ill or is incapacitated -- or dies before he can assume office. Mainly, the 20th Amendment takes care of this issue, considering the Electoral College has met to affirm Biden’s victory. If, in the highly unlikely scenario, Joe Biden is not living sometime after the electors meet to vote, the Vice President-elect would become president. It gets a little trickier if the electors have not voted. And yes, there is the possibility such a scenario could throw the election to Congress. If that happens, each state will get just one vote, which would be based upon a majority vote by its entire congressional delegation -- including its two senators.   

Such a similar scenario, incidentally, would take place in Congress in another unlikely but luridly conversational outcome where neither Trump nor Biden receives an electoral majority of 270 votes. It’s an extremely remote possibility, but we’re living in a world where such faraway odds have been realized.  

PANDEMIC OUTCOMES 

  • If successor a Democrat, they will eventually pursue a national strategy to mitigate coronavirus. 

  • If successor a Republican, outcome continues along current trajectories. 

  • The U.S. struggles to contain COVID, while political efforts focus on the transition of power. 

SCENARIO 3  

TRUMP VICTORY—A SECOND TERM  

This scenario is the least likely scenario at the time of this writing. As Biden has extended his polling lead by double-digits in the past week, it’s unlikely that Trump will change course and begin to contain the pandemic in a presidential and scientific manner before the election, and even more unlikely that he also attempts it after the election. 

While current political polling indicates a legitimate election victory is unlikely for Trump, he could engage in behaviors that he used in 2016 to win, including social manipulation, disinformation campaigns, and hostile interference. Citing broad emergency powers to close cities on Election Day for public health, Trump could take Constitutional actions that made it significantly more likely to win in an environment where fear, absentee ballot restrictions, and pestilence deter voters from polls. 

This scenario is a disaster scenario. 

PANDEMIC OUTCOMES 

  • Trump assumes office via legitimate or illegitimate means. 

  • His re-inauguration is either unchallenged or unstopped by Congress, or other extra-judicial means.  

  • Pandemic likely to rage on uncontrolled throughout the U.S. 

  • Some states will have better responses to the virus than others, but none can fully contain outbreaks due to federal interference. 

  • Riots and protests rage, law enforcement agencies continue violence against protestors. 

  • Millions of Americans die, tens (hundreds?)-of-millions lose employer-sponsored healthcare. 

  • Progress on national strategy stymied.  

  • Continued opposition to increased testing and contact-tracing programs. 

  • Procurement contracts awarded to allies. 

  • Mass economic insecurity. 

  • Geopolitical implications. 

SCENARIO 4  

TRUMP WINS—DOES NOT ASSUME OFFICE 

While a legitimate Trump victory is unlikely, it could still happen due to massive election fraud, systemic voter suppression, and interference from hostile foreign powers. Assuming this is the case, it is less likely that votes for Senate, Congress, or local office were tampered with, making it almost inevitable that Democrats take control of both legislative chambers.  

If Democrats have both houses of Congress, then they will most certainly impeach and remove Trump. However, even with a Senate trial, a comfortable Democratic majority would require 10-15 Republicans to join Democrats in voting to convict Trump with 67 votes to remove him from office – an unlikely scenario even then. This scenario is not good, but more likely than Trump winning and being allowed to remain in office.  

PANDEMIC OUTCOMES 

  • Trump has won by any means 

  • Congress or extra-judicial means stop him and VP Pence from remaining in office.  

  • Riots and protests quelled after Trump is gone.  

  • Congress assumes control of the country through the Speaker of the House. 

  • The eventual implementation of a national strategy to contain the coronavirus. 

  • Right-wing militias are emboldened 

  • Confusion from inconsistent state strategies. 

  • No federal pushback to state strategies. 

  • COVID health policies deprioritized. 

CONCLUSIONS 

The longer the pandemic rages uncontrolled, the less likely it is for the President to win a legitimate reelection contest. Additionally, most scenarios where the President wins reelection requires multiple systemic failures. Most importantly, polls in national and battleground states reveal that Trump is fairing so badly precisely because of his and his administration’s handling of the COVID pandemic.   

However, COVID poses a significant threat to a universally fair election. Major swing states like Wisconsin, allow armed, partisan poll workers to detain voters at will to challenge the legality of their vote— weaponized harassment of minorities and Democratic voters. Trump and the RNC will deploy over 40,000 ‘poll watchers’ or ‘observers’ to Democratic stronghold precincts – especially those with majority-minority voting populations.   

Already Black and Latino voters wait, on average, around 45% longer to vote than white voters, according to The Atlantic. Laws requiring specific forms of ID and restrictions to voting by mail also disproportionately pose obstacles for humans with fewer resources, workplace flexibility, or lack of easy access to transportation. With the pandemic likely to still be with us and fewer polling sites than usual, the November 2020 election will undoubtedly be worse than usual.  

The primaries were a preview of the potential disaster, where voters across the country saw polling locations slashed to a fraction of what they had been in previous years. Atlanta shuttered 80 polling sites. In Milwaukee, 180 polling locations were condensed into five, forcing voters to suffer long waits during a hailstorm.  

Elsewhere too, advocates of substantial vote-by-mail restrictions are not yielding in the face of the pandemic. In Oklahoma, voters must notarize their absentee ballots, a hoop that voters may well have to jump through this year despite the problems that pose for social distancing. Texas, which allows for absentee voting only in limited circumstances, is at substantial risk for COVID complications and will not be added as a valid reason. 

Voters are not the only ones at risk. The average poll worker is over 60 years old and is therefore especially vulnerable to the coronavirus. Not surprisingly, 7,000 poll workers in Wisconsin reported turning down poll work for the April primary because of fears of getting sick.  

Furthermore, with a heavy Atlantic hurricane season, and other compounding lurking variables, there could be multiple disasters between now and November that has consequences for the next election. 

At this point, we believe that a Biden victory is the most likely outcome. However, other results cannot be discounted, depending on the severity of hostile measures to influence the election.

SOURCES CONSULTED