Public health experts don’t expect a coronavirus vaccine to become widely available until around April 2021. Even once a viable vaccine candidate is approved, the government must manage an unprecedented fill-and-finish campaign and launch PSAs to combat misinformation that could depress vaccination rates. 

A recent leaked White House COVID report warned of an “aggressive, unrelenting, broad community spread across the country, without evidence of improvement, but rather, further deterioration.” It also said that current mitigation efforts are inadequate and must be increased. Experts expect the holiday travel and gatherings to amplify transmission considerably.

It is unlikely that the 116th Congress will pass a COVID relief bill. Although there are periodic reports—and denials—that negotiations are underway. Portions of a COVID relief bill could be on the FY2021 spending bill if they can reach an agreement.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, says that vaccinating people who think COVID-19 is “fake news” will be a “real problem.” More than 50% of Americans will need to get vaccinated in at least two doses to stop the spread. A considerable health challenge would remain even with a vaccine and 50% of the population not taking it. According to the World Health Organization, 65%-70% of the global population will require vaccination to achieve herd immunity. 


Until such time, society will have to survive through abiding by published health guidance, which we reiterate below:

1. UNIVERSAL MASK USE

Wear a mask in public at all times. COVID can survive for hours on air droplets and surfaces, and you can contract the virus even if there is nobody around you. DC and many other localities encourage or mandate masks both indoors and outdoors. Should you represent a business interest, lobby for a universal mask order to remain in effect for the pandemic duration. Wearing a mask is not a political issue, and compliance enables a return to some modicum of economic activity.  

2. SOCIAL DISTANCE; AVOID GATHERINGS

Houses of worship, coffee shops, bars, restaurants, and other areas where people of different households congregate indoors are super-spreading hotspots. These places have poor ventilation, a higher propensity for people with COVID, loud talking and exhaling, and difficulty keeping patrons’ masks on. It is reckless for governments to have allowed these locations to remain open, and governments need to explore new policy solutions. 

Andy Slavitt, a former top Obama healthcare official, recommends that states explore “bar bonds.” 

POLICY IDEA - BAR BONDS: States can issue general revenue bonds in small denominations for the public to invest. The money would go to small businesses designated by the state health commissioner. The bond purchaser would get a typical interest rate and a 15% discount at all the affected bars, restaurants, and gyms when the emergency is over. 


Local establishments need every bit of support that large businesses want, but there isn’t enough money to bail them out. “Bar Bonds” would allow states to deficit spend through the pandemic with the bonds as a backstop.

3. ROUTINE & FREQUENT COVID TESTING

Testing is often the only way to know whether you are or were infected with COVID. However, the tests do not necessarily detect recent infections. Therefore, regular testing every 48-72 hours will provide a limited window for infection and reduce the amount of contact tracing required after someone tests positive for COVID.

4. GET YOUR FLU SHOT

Patients who contract both the flu and coronavirus experience a death rate 2.3x higher than COVID alone.

5. WASH HANDS

Washing your hands remains the single-most effective way to stop the spread of germs. Just because the coronavirus gets on your hands does not mean that you have to get sick. Encourage regular hand washing through public awareness campaigns and making sure impoverished communities have access to fresh, clean water—something that some American communities still lack.

BONUS: WHAT DOESN’T WORK?

Not all mitigation strategies are equal. Some basic procedures widely implemented in schools and employment places are among the least effective measures to mitigate COVID spread.

SYMPTOM SCREENING

COVID symptoms are diverse, and many patients are asymptomatic. A study of nearly 2000 Marine recruits found that the recruits spread the virus to others despite strict quarantines and screenings despite most never showing symptoms. Health officials did not catch any of the infections through symptom screening. Symptom screening is not an effective use of limited resources.

TEMPERATURE CHECKS

Many schools and places of employment screen employees using simple temperature checks. COVID-positive people shed the virus long before their temperatures elevate. Many carriers never experience elevated temperatures.