COVID STRATEGY GUIDE: Work (and Learn) from Home
As it becomes apparent to the rest of the world that the Trump Administration has no plans to implement a national Coronavirus mitigation strategy, people naturally hope that they might fare better under the next administration. Many in the scientific and health care arenas believe a Biden win – and incoming Biden administration – will hit the ground running with a comprehensive plan to stem what likely will see more than 10 million Americans facing exposure to the coronavirus next January 20.
Based on advice from some of the best pandemic expertise and guidance on effectively controlling community spread, we think Biden will immediately establish an Office of National COVID-19 Policy. He would probably appoint a well-qualified individual at the head who knows how to marshal forces of the federal government, who is smart about the science of COVID-19 coupled with substantial 'inside government' experience.
Biden will also likely appoint a blue-ribbon advisory commission of health care policy professionals, epidemiologists, virologists, big pharma executives, physicians' groups, nursing groups, local and state administrators, and activists to accompany the new Office of National COVID-19 Policy
The Office of National COVID-19 policy or Coronavirus Policy will be granted authority to:
Establish a national standard for rapid testing and quick contact tracing across the country.
Issue COVID-19' smart' health cards to every American that can quickly be scanned by hospitals, clinics, public accommodation sites across the board that will reveal an individual's COVID-19 status, medical history, and any other relevant information.
Direct all federally funded school systems, as well as private and charter schools, to establish rigid mitigation and control procedures for in-classroom instruction of all school-age students (K-12).
Institute a variety of numerically designated 'lockdown' procedures in communities, or in entire states, where COVID-19 positivity rates exceed a certain threshold (e.g., higher than 5%), as well as additional metrics that can be utilized to determine an appropriate federal response.
Supervise all anti-viral therapeutic and vaccine efforts in coordination with FDA, CDC, NIAD (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases – currently headed by Anthony Fauci), big Pharma, as well as other vital sectors to accelerate all efforts specifically focused on the efficacy and deployment of safe, low or no cost medicine or vaccines to everyone.
A host of other policies and procedures would be detailed, as well as the enabling federal directives and any legislation requiring authorization or enabling authority for funding/appropriation. Of course, the determinative actions by Congress, as opposed to numerous executive orders by Biden that might be challenged (such as many Trump has signed).
COLLEGE REOPENING PLANS
Experts believe that the coronavirus will "ping-pong" around the United States, infecting "reopened" communities and decreasing in places as they lockdown. The 18-25 demographic is the least compliant with public health measures, so we assume that students everywhere will flout campus security and rules meant to protect public health. Dormitories also present a challenge as increased housing density can contribute to worse outcomes, as indicated by the viral spread in large cities, nursing homes, and jails.
At the beginning of the summer, most colleges and universities anticipated resuming in-person classes this fall. However, the COVID-19 surge is forcing them to alter or scuttle in-person courses altogether. More than 6,600 cases of COVID-19 have been reported at 270 colleges since the pandemic began.
"After weeks of developing a very elaborate plan for a hybrid model in the fall, we decided, after we had a serious fraternity outbreak, that it was just too risky to teach face-to-face."
-Carol Christ, Chancellor at UC Berkeley.
California published guidance over the weekend, calling for intense changes to all aspects of campus life. Most courses will be virtual, except for a limited number of labs and hands-on classes that will use strict physical distancing protocols to minimize student contact.
Dining halls are "urged" to provide 'grab-and-go" meals. Housing is limited to one student per room wherever possible. Nonessential shared spaces like game rooms and lounges are closed, and drinking fountains are prohibited. The state also recommends schools install physical barriers like plastic screens between bathroom sinks and full mask usage, whether indoors or outdoors, when physical distancing is impossible. The full 34-page document is linked below.
The state is encouraging, but not requiring colleges to test students and staff for coronavirus. A campus could fully or partially close if a student tests positive.
Most colleges would need to adopt expensive measures and undertake extensive last-minute renovations to comply with California's criteria, which are considered scientific best practices. In addition to the physical improvements, colleges will need to create testing and contact-tracing programs from scratch, with little-to-no national guidance.
Colleges attempting to resume in-person class can do everything right and still need to close fully or partially due to a COVID outbreak, rendering moot all those expensive renovations. One college in Georgia made it three days into the semester before an outbreak occurred, and they decided to send students back home.
Almost daily, universities that had released detailed plans for in-person classes this fall have reversed themselves, instead opting to move almost entirely online. The University of Pennsylvania is one of the latest colleges to change its plans. It announced Friday that virtually all undergraduate courses would move online and that undergraduates returning to Philadelphia—both on and off-campus—would need a minimum of two COVID tests to participate in any activities.
Regardless of whether they eventually close, each school that opts for in-person classes must set hard triggers for a potential shutdown. Creating those plans means considering possibilities like student or staff deaths, increasing infection rates, and full ICU facilities—an unfathomable risk when there is no reason to resume in-person class aside from trying to justify tuition money and inflated administrative salaries.
LAW SCHOOL FALL REOPENING PLANS
Fully Online: 4
Primarily Online: 4
Hybrid Model: 117
Primarily in-person: 0
Fully in-person: 9
TBD: 25
COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY FALL REOPENING PLANS
Fully Online: 151
Primarily Online: 729
Hybrid Model: 433
Primarily in-person: 614
Fully in-person: 75
TBD: 771
Other: 185
INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL FALL REOPENING PLANS
Fully Online: 0
Primarily Online: 227
Hybrid Model: 153
Primarily in-person: 61
Fully in-person: 0
TBD: 123
No Plan: 341
CORPORATE SAFETY POLICIES
Generally, businesses will receive two kinds of guidance from public officials: (1) overarching frameworks, establishing phases for the reopening process and identifying criteria for, and (2) more specific directives that supersede prior lockdown orders and allow specific operations to resume under certain conditions.
Employers can also expect new health and safety protocols for the workplace—such as mandatory health screenings and face masks—that may remain effective for the near future. Indeed, many reopening plans include multiple mitigation steps, such as limits on occupancy, sanitation, and physical distancing requirements, and new posting duties.
Most safety measures will prove insufficient at containing the spread once an outbreak occurs due to recirculated air systems in most offices. That's one reason why Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, called for a six-week nationwide shutdown to get the pandemic under control.
"The next six months could make what we have experienced so far seem like just a warm-up to a greater catastrophe. With many schools and colleges starting, stores and businesses reopening, and the beginning of the indoor heating season, new case numbers will grow quickly,"
-Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis FED chair
CONCLUSION
The United States reached a grim milestone when it surpassed 150,000 coronavirus deaths—the same number of Americans killed rebelling domestic terrorists during the Civil War. That is after the death toll surpassed American lives lost in WWI.
Now medical experts predict the U.S. death toll to be larger than the number of Americans who died in the Second World War, which killed nearly 300,000 American soldiers. No other country has bungled its COVID response the way the United States has, destroying lives, wealth, and a decade of job creation. Either due to conspiracy or incompetence, Donald Trump's coronavirus response makes him one of the most successful mass murderers of all time.
The United States' failure to implement a national mitigation strategy, including widespread testing and contact-tracing, dooms the hope for safe in-person classes at American colleges and universities. A vaccine or effaceable treatment is not strictly necessary to resume regular economic activity provided compliance with medical health orders that remain in place for longer than six weeks. However, noncompliance ensures that we will never recover without one.
Many businesses and colleges will find it impossible to comply with social distancing health requirements, much less prolonged durations of quarantine and lockdown while remaining financially viable. Extended Work/Study-From-Home will transform the American economy and education system, forcing innovations in digital learning options and investment in accessible special education for students who cannot learn at home. Those realities don't justify high commercial rents or tuition costs. However, what colleges lose in tuition dollars, they could make up for in student volume since the internet makes it possible to have only a few highly-regarded professors teaching masses of people at rates more accessible to working families.