Pinellas, Florida: The Ultimate Bellwether

Any political strategist, pollster, or political operative will tell you to watch Pinellas County, Florida on election night this November. Why? Because this Florida county, just east to Tampa, and home to St. Petersburg, is one of the most important swing counties in one of the most critically important swing states.

A quick look at its recent presidential voting history: Barack Obama won Pinellas and Florida in both 2008 and 2012, but Trump in 2016 edged out Hillary Clinton. He also won Florida. Republicans live in gated communities to the north of St. Petersburg, while Democrats are mostly centered in the city. What;’s more, the number of registered Democrats is virtually tied with the number of Republicans, followed closely by the number of independents.

Pinellas County also is home to a large number of retired senior citizens, who supported Trump over Clinton by a margin of 17% in 2016. But that percentage has all but eroded with a pandemic where seniors are particularly at risk for the severest of symptoms, as well as comprising more than two thirds of the fatalities from COVID-19 cases. And many say on-the-ground political operatives say older voters in Pinellas are unhappy with the Trump Administration’s failures over the handling of the pandemic.

Early voting in Florida starts October 19. Several polls have revealed senior voters will have the coronavirus pandemic, Trump’s response to it, and the economic disaster created by the virus, on their minds when they cast their ballots.

Biden and Trump are statically tied in the Sunshine State. Two recent polls support Pinellas’ historical boast that it is the most decisively predictable county in a state that many observers say may decide the election. And a recent Marist poll showed Biden and Trump in a virtual dead heat among likely Pinellas County voters.

So keep your eyes on Pinellas County. It’s a bellwether for certain, and the pandemic may have tipped voters’ minds.