Undecided California House Races: Election Quirk

CALIFORNIA: ELECTORAL QUIRKINESS

While California voters overwhelmingly delivered Joe Biden a whopping two thirds majority win over Donald Trump for the grand electoral prize of 55 electoral votes, the Golden State lived up to is quirky reputation as it rejected an amendment that would have provided labor protections for delivery and ride-share ‘gig’ workers. Voters also appear to have said ‘no’ to tax on commercial landlords that could have put a big dent in the state’s budget deficit — severely worsened since last March when the COVID-19 outbreak began. And, in an unexpected outcome, California voters also repealed an affirmative action amendment.

Meanwhile, a string of U.S. House races remain undecided, especially in contests where the GOP is attempting to recapture seats it lost in the 2018 Democratic ‘Blue Wave.’ But the ultimate fate of Republican hopefuls in Central Valley and Orange County swing districts may depend on how disapproval of Trump had down ballot consequences as hundreds of thousands of ballots remain to be counted.

In San Diego, Darrell Issa, remains in a close contest for the 50th congressional district trying to reclaim his place in Congress in the neighboring district he represented for decades. And in the Central Valley, GOP House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy appears to be comfortably ahead while Republican Rep. Devin Nunes, one of Donald Trump’s most ardent supporters, is so far edging out Democrat Phil Arballo.

After the humiliating 2018 defeat of five Republican U.S. representatives, the GOP’s California delegation was whittled down to only seven out of 53 members. Republicans haven’t won a statewide race since 2007, and the Democrats outnumber Republicans in voter registrations by more than 2 to 1.

A slow count in the 25th congressional district, one of the most competitive in the state, Democratic state lawmaker Christy Smith’s early lead dwindled over her Republican opponent, Rep. Mike Garcia, who won a special election in 2019 after Katie Hill, who won the seat in the 2018 Democratic rout, resigned after an House ethics code accused her of sexual misconduct. Still incomplete returns now have Democratic state lawmaker Smith narrowly trailing Garcia in the swing 25th District in Northwest Los Angeles County.

A rematch in California’s Imperial Valley is pitting former U.S. Rep. David Valadao against Democrat T. J. Cox by fewer than 1,000 votes, but this year, Valadao is slightly ahead. If Valadao succeeds, it will be clearly paradoxical because Trump lost there by more than 15 points.

And in what was once considered to be the bastion of American conservatism — Orange County — Republican Michelle Steele cut into first-term Democrat Harley Rouda’s early lead in the 48th District, and now enjoys first-place position — an ever so slight one — with several thousand ballots yet to be counted. The district was until 2019 represented by Dana Rohrabacher, ultra-conservative Reagan-era Republican. Although Republicans outnumber Democrats, the Orange County area has grown more diverse and progressive in recent years. Clinton won it by 9 points in 2016.

True to California’s quixotic voting patterns, the 10th District in The Central Valley’s agriculture rich economy, has a long history of electing Republicans to Congress, but freshmen Democrat Josh Harder, a centrist, has handily defeated Republican Ted Howze.