WHAT TO EXPECT FROM VIRGINIA’S SPECIAL SESSION
Virginia state legislators returned to the Capitol this week to meet for a special legislative session on coronavirus. One member on the House Appropriations Committee privately likened the session to the General Assembly, "coming back to turn on the 'un-allotted' lights." The pandemic forced the Commonwealth to pause $2.7 billion of new spending on Democratic priorities. The legislature also plans to approve new language on criminal justice reform that will relive systemic pressure after months of protests.
Republicans are still focused on petty politics, apparently unaware of how problematic the messaging is for them to call Democrats authoritarians drunk on power. House Republicans did successfully draw a foul on the first play from scrimmage, frustrating the new and inexperienced Speaker and House Clerk by slowing down the docket for one week while they approve a rule change. In the meantime, the Senate is not wasting time killing bills that it deems too liberal or too complicated to deal with in a special session, like paid sick leave, which one House member alleged the Senate tabled because it wanted to minimize the time it meets in person.
Regardless of the outcome of individual legislative initiatives, it's apparent from the public discourse that leaders of both parties do not fully appreciate the pandemic's breadth and scale. Virginia's political leadership considers this session an opportunity to make a few surgical incisions and patch a legacy racist system with bandaids, rather than take a swing at the systemic reform necessary for Virginians to weather the duration of the pandemic.
Multiple generations of Virginians will be poorer and less educated whenever we emerge from the epidemic. Many families will face food insecurity for the rest of their lives. Retirement portfolios and pension funds both could collapse along with the stock market when reality sets in for investors. Depending on the timing, legislators could find themselves in a series of budget crises and special sessions.
However, the assumption underlying this week's legislative activity is that Virginia's state budget, which is dependent upon its investment portfolio, is much healthier than when the Governor called the legislature to reconvene. Instead of shortfalls, budget forecasts reflect a modest 2% growth. While this amount is far less than budgeted, leaders remain confident that the virus won't impact their budget as negatively as they initially feared. Rainy Day funds remain a comfortable cushion, for now.
Despite recent market gains, however, the underlying problem remains, whenever the stock market does resume its fall, Virginia's budget security will falter. It may take another six months for state and federal governments to feel the full brunt of 30% protracted real unemployment in their tax receipts. Income is still a significant driver of state budgets, and the U.S. is experiencing Great Depression-levels of unemployment. The federal government has been printing money to buy corporate debt, hoping to keep the big businesses afloat through the pandemic. Small businesses—peoples' livelihoods—are already shuttered in gut-wrenching numbers. Household budgets are getting blown out while the government devalues its currency, compounding a decade of Quantitative Easing.
While the modest criminal justice reforms and new economic proposals on the table will help somewhat, there is no public evidence the state leaders comprehend the magnitude of the disaster that befalls Virginia. Despite having months to compile an aggressive agenda that meets the moment, Democrats are doing what one might describe as "governing from a bunker."
Notwithstanding the early setback and the high stakes of the Session, some changes are likely to survive this General Assembly. One bright spot is the possibility for automatic expungement of arrest records and minor crimes. House Democrats modeled their legislation on a similar provision in Pennsylvania code, the only other state with automatic expungement. It is a proven model that is a good first step for a southern powerhouse.
The money that unions requested for the Department of Labor and Industry (DOLI) was one area of new spending in 2020 that survived the pandemic cuts. DOLI's wage theft and payroll fraud investigators generate more revenue than they cost the Commonwealth. Their jobs become more important as regulators now police in the COVID era.
Unlikely to change, however, are local school district's relationships with School Resource Officers (SROs) after Karen Corbett Sanders, the Chair of Fairfax County Public Schools reminded its delegation last week that it has an outstanding relationship, and record, with the police in its schools. Fairfax implemented the SRO model over 15 years ago.
Watchers hoping for an earnest legislative push at comprehensive, systemic reforms supported by advocates are likely to be disappointed.
Business interests thwart the public's only probable opportunity reform as a hedge to the coronavirus crisis ending sooner rather than later. The virus will not disappear. Broadly, this legislative package is insufficient to relieve household economic insecurity. Neither will any bill stop the inevitable wave of business bankruptcies, corporate restructurings, and closures.
The backdrop against which Virginia's special session unfolds is one that Foreign Policy warns could "entrench feudalism." Protecting household wealth from economic insecurity should be the primary goal of federal and state governments in this crisis. However, modest proposals are unlikely to satisfy liberal reformers who will, in turn, demand more aggressive politicians in the future. Regardless of the noise, the Senate remains a barrier to progressive reform until there is new leadership, until older Democrats age out in 2024, or until Terry McAuliffe decides in favor of the reformers, elevating their cause.
It is not only blue-collar workers who feel the pinch but also white-collar workers experienced record job losses. For them, those jobs will be slower to return and more likely to be gone forever. Nearly 7 million workers have experienced a pay cut since the pandemic began, according to the ADP analysis — most in high-wage industries. Persistent white-collar layoffs and wage cuts have downstream effects for the rest of the economy, mainly because spending among wealthier Americans helps support jobs in blue-collar service sector jobs at restaurants, such as hair salons or gym studios.
Unfortunately, any future action to correct systemic problems could be too-little-too-late come January, as the United States already careened off the cliff toward a fascist dystopia with naked emperor Donald Trump and VP Mike Pence as the proverbial Thelma & Louise. Meanwhile, 20% of American families had difficulty feeding their families in July.
Assuming a Biden victory, then perhaps Virginia will escape the most severe possible consequences. If, however, Donald Trump refuses to go quietly, and that is likely, then the modest adjustments made in this special session will prove inadequate to stop more massive waves of political violence and uproar. The irony is that Virginia has in its toolkit everything necessary to mitigate both COVID19 and its downstream fallout. However, the messaging and actions from its leadership and influencers do not inspire confidence.
