Now is the Winter of Our Discontent
Dr. Anthony Fauci has repeatedly said that “the cavalry is coming” when he speaks of the advent of forthcoming vaccines — particularly the two leading contenders, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna. But these revolutionary developments utilizing first-ever technology never before applied against a pandemic, or perennial infectious diseases like influenza or measles, won’t be available to quell the overwhelming surge in COVID-19 cases nationwide. Every public health expert is warning the most horrific period of the pandemic has yet to unfold.
It may be comforting to know that Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines are literally days way from almost certain approval by the Food and Drug Administration followed by shipments of millions of doses by late December — with hundreds of millions more doses being shipped to every state in the first three months of 2021. In a phased rollout of all the vaccines — including what is estimated to be as many as four or five more by March — most Americans will be eligible for vaccination by next July.
But day after day new records are being broken. Before vaccines are in widespread distribution, there will be several dire months to endure. New COVID cases Thursday exceeded 212,000 — yet another daily record.
By late December, some estimates predict the coronavirus death toll could be 380,000. 275,000 Americans have already lost their lives to COVID-19. As of Friday, more than 14 million U.S. citizens have been infected with the virus. The worst of it — the dismal winter months that lie ahead — won’t see any relief until at least April when mass dissemination of the vaccines begins to quash the pandemic. By that time, composite modeling from an array of forecasts estimate the number of COVID deaths by early March could reach 470,000.
The only remedy to this frightening surge is that everyone should wear a mask and whenever possible, stay at home. In most states, unlike when the pandemic fist began, governors are now begging citizens to mask up. Astonishingly, there is a handful of states — the very ones hit hardest by coronavirus — that continue to refuse to call for additional restrictions or mandate wearing of masks.
Fauci agreed to become President-elect Joe Biden’s chief medical advisor when he takes office, as well as remaining a leader in the government’s role in controlling the pandemic as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Until the vaccines result in millions of inoculations, Fauci maintains essential preventative measures like mask wearing will save thousands of lives.
Echoing what public health officials everywhere have been saying for months, Biden announced this week he plans to ask all Americans to wear masks for 100 days. As president, he will have authority to mandate masks in all government buildings and enclaves, as well as on interstate transportation carriers such as airlines, trains, and public transportation systems.
Despite best efforts, the worst is yet to come. The U.S. can expect the peak of COVID-19 hospitalizations toward the end of January — reflective of a surge due to colder weather that forces more people indoors, as well as many who still will deny warnings against gathering with families and friends over the holidays. By the end of next month, this country’s health care system could be at the breaking point. It is already tottering on the brink now.
Until that heralded ‘vaccine cavalry' arrives in sufficient numbers to bend the unrelentingly rising curve of new COVID-19 cases along with almost unthinkable numbers of those critically ill and dead — we are destined for a long, dark winter of COVID.
“We are seeing a person dying every minute. We have an enormously significant challenge here to try to get this turned around.”