Virginia: The Dr. is Out to Lunch
Courtesy of the Associated Press
Virginia Governor Ralph Northam announced new measures to mitigate COVID transmission. The new measures are enumerated and graded below:
Expanded mask mandate (A) - all persons 5+ required to wear masks in all indoor settings shared with non-household members.
Reduced the allowable number of people at social gatherings to 10 from 25 (C+) - This measure finally aligns Virginia closer to the CDC guidance that has been in-place since the pandemic began.
Statewide curfew limiting activity from 12 am to 5 am (F) - This is similar to a measure imposed in North Carolina.
The mask mandate is overdue, and should have been required public health guidance all along. Since the pandemic began, viral spread follows the pattern of super-spreading events and subsequent at-home infections. The Governor is still allowing for indoor dining, which is impossible to do with masks, and new evidence suggests viral spread can occur via strong airflow (wind or an air conditioner) as far as 20 feet away from an infected individual. Indoor dining continues to be the most dangerous activity in relation to this pandemic and no new restrictions are in place to stop it, aside from arbitrary reduced Fire Marshal capacity limits.
Additionally, despite the individual gathering limits, there are still no restrictions on houses of worship, private employers, or schools, where over half of Virginia’s infections occurred to date. Northam has full executive authority over the state police and sheriffs. He also has once-in-a-generation political leverage to at least threaten to reduce the funding of, and/or restructure, non-compliant police departments, Northam refuses to deploy officers under his authority to enforce public health regulations. It may be because the departments refuse to enforce his actions, and therefore he should explore policy options preferred by criminal justice reform advocates to wield wholesale police reform as a stick and their agency funding as a carrot.
Finally, there is no scientific evidence that curfews have any affect on the rate of COVID transmission, making this measure arbitrary and capricious. To be clear, it is the risky behavior itself—and not the time at which it occurs—that contributes to the spread of the virus. It is unfathomable why Gov. Northam believes a virus that demands widespread testing, contact tracing, occasional and recurring localized lockdowns, and compliance enforcement, is capable of political compromise.
With these new measures, Northam reveals that he, a doctor who should know better, is simply reacting to events. Early, decisive action with a justifiable basis in epidemiological science would yield better public health outcomes and political results. The Governor would be better served by taking proactive actions and standing firm on the justifiable science with clear and consistent public messaging.
Such a course would also serve as a political trap for Republicans and opponents. Opposition from Republicans and business sectors are temporary, but the consequences of inaction are permanently fatal. Standing by science-based policy actions would also serve as a long-term trap for Republicans that could further erode GOP credibility. Ultimately, history will not look kindly on Republicans who obstruct and object to science-based public health measures in a pandemic. Strict compliance and enforcement would yield better economic results because Virginia business could beat outbreaks, leading to a faster economic recovery. Ultimately, those policies are more pro-business than subjecting Virginia to inefficacious half-measures that prolong economic pain and lead to more deaths.
